{"F": {"ts_code": "300421.SZ", "name": "力星股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20150217", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.35, "pe_ttm": 90.9243, "pb": 3.8091, "dv_ttm": 0.9174, "total_mv": 480739.704, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.6, 22.9, 17.4, 17.9, 16.9, 16.5], "rev_series": [7.9, 9.7, 9.8, 10.0, 10.4, 11.1], "np_series": [0.6, 0.9, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.7], "roe_series": [5.3, 7.6, 5.0, 4.8, 4.4, 5.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.2, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 1.1, "ocf_yield": 1.7, "gm_median": 17.4, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -4.2, "npm_median": 6.2, "roe_median": 5.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.1, "fix_assets": 7.4, "goodwill_ratio": 2.9, "pb_calc": 3.81, "capex_dep": 0.34, "interest_debt": 3.3, "debt_ebitda": 2.0, "debt_ratio": 34.6, "debt_mv": 6.9, "payout": 122.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.2, "np_cagr3": 3.5, "rev_yoy": 2.6, "np_yoy": -43.5, "np_vol": 27.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["钢球", 29.0], ["滚动体球", 29.0], ["滚子", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 235.4, "ret_prev2_year": -12.8, "ret_ytd": -55.4, "ret_pivot": 107.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.4, "ret_60": -19.9, "ret_120": -34.7, "ret_250": -3.3, "mdd_250": -59.2, "vol_250": 67.5, "pos_52w": 44.2}, "S": {"duration": 90, "pricing": 43, "hard": 61, "bondness": 62}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 38%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.2 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.4%,稳定度 86%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.4%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 0.34 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 90.9 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -3%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 68%,现价在 52 周高点的 44%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -20% / -35%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "力星股份:PE 比行业中位高 40.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.3个百分点。"]}}