{"F": {"ts_code": "300418.SZ", "name": "昆仑万维", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "游戏Ⅱ", "sw3": "游戏Ⅲ", "ind": "游戏Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20150121", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 45.43, "pe_ttm": 166.4058, "pb": 3.9443, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 5837912.6421, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [79.2, 71.7, 78.8, 78.8, 73.6, 68.6], "rev_series": [27.4, 48.5, 47.4, 49.2, 56.6, 82.0], "np_series": [49.9, 15.5, 11.5, 12.6, -15.9, -15.9], "roe_series": [69.5, 15.4, 10.0, 9.0, -10.8, -11.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 98.2, "np_ttm": 3.5, "ocf_ttm": -6.4, "fcf_ttm": -8.5, "fcf_yield": -1.5, "ocf_yield": -1.1, "gm_median": 73.6, "gm_std": 4.0, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -0.3, "npm_median": 26.0, "roe_median": 9.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.3, "fix_assets": 2.8, "goodwill_ratio": 20.2, "pb_calc": 3.94, "capex_dep": 1.98, "interest_debt": 13.9, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 23.6, "debt_mv": 2.4, "payout": 4.7, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 20.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 43.5, "np_yoy": 227.2, "np_vol": 86.5, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 14, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 31801.0, "fwd_g1": -210.0, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["网络广告服务", 19.0], ["以Opera为主的广告业务", 19.0], ["短剧平台业务", 14.0], ["AI短剧平台业务", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 8.4, "ret_prev2_year": 3.0, "ret_ytd": 8.9, "ret_pivot": 70.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.2, "ret_60": 23.0, "ret_120": -10.1, "ret_250": 4.2, "mdd_250": -44.5, "vol_250": 71.0, "pos_52w": 70.1}, "S": {"duration": 98, "pricing": 77, "hard": 2, "bondness": 5}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "商誉占比高"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 3.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 166 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 24%,有息负债 14 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 73.6%),硬资产占比 1%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.5%(经营现金流/市值 -1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 73.6%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 1.98 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 166.4 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 4%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 71%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 23% / -10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「游戏Ⅱ」26 家中位:PE 24.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 60.8% / 固定资产占比 4% / 分红率 43%。", "昆仑万维:PE 比行业中位高 141.8倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 12.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.7个百分点。"]}}