{"F": {"ts_code": "300416.SZ", "name": "苏试试验", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "社会服务", "sw2": "专业服务", "sw3": "检测服务", "ind": "专业服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20150122", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.18, "pe_ttm": 26.7477, "pb": 2.555, "dv_ttm": 1.0578, "total_mv": 721120.7804, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [44.3, 46.1, 46.7, 45.6, 44.5, 41.8], "rev_series": [11.8, 15.0, 18.1, 21.2, 20.3, 22.5], "np_series": [1.2, 1.9, 2.7, 3.1, 2.3, 2.6], "roe_series": [13.2, 13.9, 13.8, 13.3, 8.9, 9.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 23.4, "np_ttm": 2.7, "ocf_ttm": 6.3, "fcf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_yield": 3.1, "ocf_yield": 8.7, "gm_median": 45.6, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": 2.3, "npm_median": 14.7, "roe_median": 13.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.7, "fix_assets": 16.2, "goodwill_ratio": 1.2, "pb_calc": 2.55, "capex_dep": 2.07, "interest_debt": 13.3, "debt_ebitda": 2.0, "debt_ratio": 39.5, "debt_mv": 18.4, "payout": 29.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.6, "np_cagr3": -1.6, "rev_yoy": 8.9, "np_yoy": 10.4, "np_vol": 28.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.7, "consensus_n": 14, "fwd_pe": 23.2, "fwd_pe2": 19.3, "fwd_g1": 15.0, "fwd_g2": 20.0, "peg": 1.16, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["环境可靠性试验服务", 52.0], ["试验设备", 27.0], ["集成电路验证与分析服务", 16.0], ["其他业务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 54.4, "ret_prev2_year": -36.0, "ret_ytd": -19.8, "ret_pivot": 49.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.4, "ret_60": -14.7, "ret_120": -14.8, "ret_250": -25.3, "mdd_250": -39.6, "vol_250": 48.9, "pos_52w": 64.8}, "S": {"duration": 49, "pricing": 66, "hard": 51, "bondness": 35}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 26.7 倍、股息率 1.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 45.6%、固定资产占比 32%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 32%、毛利率 45.6% 两条都占,但所在行业(社会服务)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.1%(经营现金流/市值 8.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 45.6%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 2.07 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 26.7 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -25%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -15% / -15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专业服务」33 家中位:PE 36.6 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 45.6% / 固定资产占比 24% / 分红率 43%。", "苏试试验:PE 比行业中位低 9.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.4个百分点。"]}}