{"F": {"ts_code": "300413.SZ", "name": "芒果超媒", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "数字媒体", "sw3": "视频媒体", "ind": "数字媒体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20150121", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.25, "pe_ttm": 59.7395, "pb": 1.7221, "dv_ttm": 1.2235, "total_mv": 3975281.9125, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.1, 35.5, 33.8, 33.0, 29.0, 23.1], "rev_series": [140.1, 153.6, 137.0, 146.3, 140.8, 138.1], "np_series": [19.8, 21.1, 18.2, 35.6, 13.6, 12.3], "roe_series": [20.5, 15.3, 10.2, 17.6, 6.2, 5.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 140.4, "np_ttm": 6.7, "ocf_ttm": 3.8, "fcf_ttm": 2.8, "fcf_yield": 0.7, "ocf_yield": 1.0, "gm_median": 33.0, "gm_std": 4.4, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -0.3, "npm_median": 12.9, "roe_median": 10.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.4, "fix_assets": 1.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.72, "capex_dep": 3.12, "interest_debt": 2.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 29.4, "debt_mv": 0.5, "payout": 30.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 0.3, "np_cagr3": -12.4, "rev_yoy": 3.9, "np_yoy": -73.6, "np_vol": 49.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.7, "consensus_n": 21, "fwd_pe": 35.2, "fwd_pe2": 26.9, "fwd_g1": 69.0, "fwd_g2": 31.0, "peg": 1.14, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["芒果TV互联网视频业务", 72.0], ["内容电商", 18.0], ["新媒体互动娱乐内容制作", 10.0], ["其他", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -8.5, "ret_prev2_year": 7.6, "ret_ytd": -12.0, "ret_pivot": 15.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 32.8, "ret_60": 37.8, "ret_120": -3.1, "ret_250": -20.8, "mdd_250": -60.6, "vol_250": 49.5, "pos_52w": 59.9}, "S": {"duration": 78, "pricing": 54, "hard": 1, "bondness": 38}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 59.7 倍、股息率 1.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 33.0%、固定资产占比 0%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 33.0%),硬资产占比 0%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.7%(经营现金流/市值 1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.0%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 0%,资本开支/折旧 3.12 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 59.7 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -61%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 33% / 38% / -3%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「数字媒体」14 家中位:PE 85.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 44.0% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 55%。", "芒果超媒:PE 比行业中位低 26.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.0个百分点。"]}}