{"F": {"ts_code": "300412.SZ", "name": "迦南科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20141231", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.56, "pe_ttm": 112.3315, "pb": 2.2236, "dv_ttm": 1.2719, "total_mv": 226977.0096, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.9, 29.5, 26.2, 28.8, 24.6, 24.6], "rev_series": [10.1, 10.6, 11.0, 10.5, 13.8, 12.3], "np_series": [0.7, 0.7, -0.8, -0.2, 0.4, 0.3], "roe_series": [8.3, 7.5, -6.9, -2.3, 3.5, 2.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.7, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_yield": 7.1, "ocf_yield": 8.7, "gm_median": 26.2, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -2.6, "npm_median": 2.2, "roe_median": 2.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 22.4, "fix_assets": 5.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.9, "pb_calc": 2.22, "capex_dep": 0.87, "interest_debt": 4.1, "debt_ebitda": 4.8, "debt_ratio": 57.1, "debt_mv": 17.9, "payout": 91.2, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 3.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -10.4, "np_yoy": -128.4, "np_vol": 147.2, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["口服固体制剂设备及智能工厂业务", 30.0], ["口服固体制剂设备", 30.0], ["生物及无菌制剂用水设备及配液系统工程业务", 25.0], ["智能仓储物流系统及装备业务", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 17.5, "ret_prev2_year": -19.2, "ret_ytd": -13.8, "ret_pivot": 44.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.8, "ret_60": 7.3, "ret_120": -19.9, "ret_250": -18.6, "mdd_250": -38.2, "vol_250": 39.3, "pos_52w": 76.0}, "S": {"duration": 94, "pricing": 51, "hard": 36, "bondness": 70}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 112 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 57%,有息负债 4 亿,经营现金流/市值 8.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 22%,毛利率近 5 年中位 26.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.1%(经营现金流/市值 8.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.2%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 0.87 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 112.3 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 7% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "迦南科技:PE 比行业中位高 70.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.4个百分点。"]}}