{"F": {"ts_code": "300410.SZ", "name": "正业科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "锂电专用设备", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20141231", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.85, "pe_ttm": 68.5851, "pb": 10.1301, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 288185.118, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.9, 32.2, 30.4, 24.3, 24.2, 31.2], "rev_series": [12.0, 14.6, 9.9, 7.6, 7.1, 8.7], "np_series": [-3.1, 1.3, -1.0, -2.2, -2.2, 0.4], "roe_series": [-40.3, 19.1, -14.5, -40.1, -68.1, 15.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.8, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 3.5, "ocf_yield": 3.8, "gm_median": 30.4, "gm_std": 3.5, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": 1.5, "npm_median": -10.3, "roe_median": -14.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.2, "fix_assets": 2.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 10.13, "capex_dep": 0.79, "interest_debt": 3.1, "debt_ebitda": 3.5, "debt_ratio": 83.3, "debt_mv": 10.9, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -4.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 28.3, "np_yoy": 32.3, "np_vol": 125.6, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 41.0], ["高端新材料", 17.0], ["新材料", 17.0], ["X光检测自动化", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 52.0, "ret_prev2_year": -38.8, "ret_ytd": -4.0, "ret_pivot": 67.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.5, "ret_60": -27.6, "ret_120": -12.8, "ret_250": -12.5, "mdd_250": -51.1, "vol_250": 56.5, "pos_52w": 59.2}, "S": {"duration": 82, "pricing": 55, "hard": 21, "bondness": 30}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 69 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 83%,有息负债 3 亿,经营现金流/市值 3.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 30.4%),硬资产占比 13%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.5%(经营现金流/市值 3.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.4%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 0.79 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 68.6 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / -28% / -13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "正业科技:PE 比行业中位高 32.8倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 12.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 14.6个百分点。"]}}