{"F": {"ts_code": "300409.SZ", "name": "道氏技术", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "电池化学品", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20141203", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.27, "pe_ttm": 23.8441, "pb": 1.6722, "dv_ttm": 1.4265, "total_mv": 1350944.023, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.0, 23.3, 16.4, 16.0, 17.7, 22.6], "rev_series": [33.1, 65.7, 68.6, 73.0, 77.5, 81.6], "np_series": [0.6, 5.6, 0.9, -0.3, 1.6, 5.1], "roe_series": [2.4, 16.1, 1.7, -0.5, 2.5, 6.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 93.0, "np_ttm": 5.7, "ocf_ttm": -1.8, "fcf_ttm": -7.3, "fcf_yield": -5.4, "ocf_yield": -1.3, "gm_median": 17.7, "gm_std": 3.1, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": -6.7, "npm_median": 2.5, "roe_median": 2.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 34.3, "fix_assets": 47.6, "goodwill_ratio": 2.9, "pb_calc": 1.67, "capex_dep": 1.3, "interest_debt": 38.9, "debt_ebitda": 2.9, "debt_ratio": 39.5, "debt_mv": 28.8, "payout": 85.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.9, "np_cagr3": 80.5, "rev_yoy": 31.2, "np_yoy": 25.9, "np_vol": 387.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 79.0, "earn_yield": 4.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["战略资源", 54.0], ["正极相关材料", 31.0], ["碳材料及负极材料", 8.0], ["陶瓷材料", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 68.7, "ret_prev2_year": 27.6, "ret_ytd": -22.3, "ret_pivot": 101.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.4, "ret_60": -12.4, "ret_120": -42.4, "ret_250": -22.8, "mdd_250": -52.7, "vol_250": 58.1, "pos_52w": 49.8}, "S": {"duration": 45, "pricing": 41, "hard": 55, "bondness": 61}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 34%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 34%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.7%,稳定度 82%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.4%(经营现金流/市值 -1.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.7%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 1.30 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 23.8 倍 粗算,约 79%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -23%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -12% / -42%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "道氏技术:PE 比行业中位低 12.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.5个百分点。"]}}