{"F": {"ts_code": "300407.SZ", "name": "凯发电气", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "电网自动化设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20141203", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.73, "pe_ttm": 62.0536, "pb": 1.8689, "dv_ttm": 0.6716, "total_mv": 406373.1816, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.6, 25.2, 28.5, 26.7, 25.3, 24.0], "rev_series": [19.5, 19.0, 19.1, 20.0, 22.1, 26.9], "np_series": [0.9, 0.7, 0.9, 1.0, 0.9, 0.7], "roe_series": [6.1, 4.7, 5.9, 5.8, 5.3, 3.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 28.6, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 6.6, "fcf_ttm": 5.3, "fcf_yield": 13.0, "ocf_yield": 16.3, "gm_median": 25.3, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": 2.9, "npm_median": 3.8, "roe_median": 5.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.4, "fix_assets": 3.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.9, "pb_calc": 1.87, "capex_dep": 1.89, "interest_debt": 2.9, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 47.4, "debt_mv": 7.1, "payout": 36.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 12.0, "np_cagr3": -7.5, "rev_yoy": 15.7, "np_yoy": -24.2, "np_vol": 20.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["接触网工程", 32.0], ["供电及自动化系统", 16.0], ["合计特别调整", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 12.5, "ret_prev2_year": 9.4, "ret_ytd": 4.4, "ret_pivot": 48.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.2, "ret_60": 3.1, "ret_120": -15.2, "ret_250": 2.3, "mdd_250": -36.7, "vol_250": 47.8, "pos_52w": 81.0}, "S": {"duration": 79, "pricing": 55, "hard": 13, "bondness": 29}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 62.1 倍,估值里约 92% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 8%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 8%,毛利率近 5 年中位 25.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 13.0%(经营现金流/市值 16.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.3%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 1.89 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 62.1 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 2%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 81%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / 3% / -15%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "凯发电气:PE 比行业中位高 18.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.5个百分点。"]}}