{"F": {"ts_code": "300404.SZ", "name": "博济医药", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗服务", "sw3": "医疗研发外包", "ind": "医疗服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20150424", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.43, "pe_ttm": 91.9879, "pb": 4.4243, "dv_ttm": 0.1046, "total_mv": 479485.8827, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.7, 43.2, 37.9, 33.3, 30.4, 27.1], "rev_series": [2.6, 3.2, 4.2, 5.6, 7.4, 8.7], "np_series": [0.2, 0.4, 0.3, 0.2, 0.3, 0.3], "roe_series": [3.9, 6.2, 3.3, 2.7, 3.0, 3.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.6, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 1.1, "ocf_yield": 1.4, "gm_median": 33.3, "gm_std": 5.7, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -5.8, "npm_median": 4.9, "roe_median": 3.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.2, "fix_assets": 2.1, "goodwill_ratio": 1.7, "pb_calc": 4.42, "capex_dep": 0.62, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 34.3, "debt_mv": 0.9, "payout": 15.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 27.0, "np_cagr3": 3.3, "rev_yoy": 25.6, "np_yoy": 138.9, "np_vol": 55.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["临床研究服务", 40.0], ["临床前研究服务", 6.0], ["其他咨询服务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 7.0, "ret_prev2_year": -2.4, "ret_ytd": 33.4, "ret_pivot": 74.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 14.0, "ret_60": 49.5, "ret_120": 22.7, "ret_250": 5.8, "mdd_250": -35.8, "vol_250": 54.0, "pos_52w": 70.6}, "S": {"duration": 90, "pricing": 49, "hard": 20, "bondness": 8}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 92.0 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 12%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 12%,毛利率近 5 年中位 33.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.3%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 0.62 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 92.0 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 6%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 14% / 50% / 23%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗服务」52 家中位:PE 73.1 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 41.3% / 固定资产占比 19% / 分红率 34%。", "博济医药:PE 比行业中位高 18.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.7个百分点。"]}}