{"F": {"ts_code": "300397.SZ", "name": "天和防务", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "军工电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "军工电子Ⅲ", "ind": "军工电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20140910", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.96, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.0266, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 567329.8232, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.3, 30.1, 28.6, 20.8, 28.3, 28.2], "rev_series": [12.2, 5.6, 5.0, 3.5, 4.0, 5.0], "np_series": [1.0, -0.7, -1.5, -2.0, -1.1, -1.0], "roe_series": [8.7, -4.5, -7.9, -11.3, -6.7, -6.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.4, "np_ttm": -0.6, "ocf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_yield": -1.4, "ocf_yield": -0.8, "gm_median": 28.3, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -9.7, "npm_median": -30.2, "roe_median": -6.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 49.9, "fix_assets": 13.3, "goodwill_ratio": 2.4, "pb_calc": 4.03, "capex_dep": 1.11, "interest_debt": 7.0, "debt_ebitda": 17.8, "debt_ratio": 49.5, "debt_mv": 12.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -0.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 81.8, "np_yoy": 76.0, "np_vol": 78.3, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["电子材料与元器件制造业", 20.0], ["5G射频器件及芯片", 20.0], ["军工装备制造业", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 34.8, "ret_prev2_year": 6.5, "ret_ytd": -26.0, "ret_pivot": 38.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.1, "ret_60": -15.8, "ret_120": -15.9, "ret_250": -28.0, "mdd_250": -44.6, "vol_250": 48.6, "pos_52w": 64.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 49, "hard": 80, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 5 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 50%,有息负债 7 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 50%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 28.3%,稳定度 88%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.4%(经营现金流/市值 -0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.3%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 50%,资本开支/折旧 1.11 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / -16% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「军工电子Ⅱ」61 家中位:PE 79.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 39.7% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 33%。", "天和防务:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 35.8个百分点。"]}}