{"F": {"ts_code": "300395.SZ", "name": "菲利华", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "航空装备Ⅱ", "sw3": "航空装备Ⅲ", "ind": "航空装备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20140910", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 89.31, "pe_ttm": 90.951, "pb": 8.9646, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 4695268.7301, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [52.1, 50.8, 51.2, 49.5, 42.2, 47.4], "rev_series": [8.6, 12.2, 17.2, 20.9, 17.4, 20.2], "np_series": [2.4, 3.7, 4.9, 5.4, 3.1, 4.4], "roe_series": [12.0, 16.3, 17.9, 15.5, 7.8, 10.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 24.2, "np_ttm": 5.2, "ocf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_ttm": -5.4, "fcf_yield": -1.1, "ocf_yield": 0.4, "gm_median": 49.5, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -0.9, "npm_median": 27.5, "roe_median": 15.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.9, "fix_assets": 26.8, "goodwill_ratio": 1.5, "pb_calc": 8.96, "capex_dep": 3.02, "interest_debt": 3.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 21.0, "debt_mv": 0.6, "payout": 20.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 5.5, "np_cagr3": -3.2, "rev_yoy": 44.1, "np_yoy": 33.0, "np_vol": 33.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 16, "fwd_pe": 58.5, "fwd_pe2": 37.9, "fwd_g1": 56.0, "fwd_g2": 54.0, "peg": 1.08, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["石英玻璃材料", 56.0], ["石英玻璃制品", 43.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 167.6, "ret_prev2_year": 3.5, "ret_ytd": -11.0, "ret_pivot": 204.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.3, "ret_60": -28.0, "ret_120": -21.6, "ret_250": -10.3, "mdd_250": -53.2, "vol_250": 77.2, "pos_52w": 59.0}, "S": {"duration": 90, "pricing": 64, "hard": 53, "bondness": 23}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 91.0 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 49.5%、固定资产占比 33%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 33%、毛利率 49.5% 两条都占,但所在行业(国防军工)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.1%(经营现金流/市值 0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 49.5%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 33%,资本开支/折旧 3.02 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 91.0 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 77%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / -28% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航空装备Ⅱ」48 家中位:PE 73.9 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 32.0% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 36%。", "菲利华:PE 比行业中位高 17.1倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 17.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.3个百分点。"]}}