{"F": {"ts_code": "300394.SZ", "name": "天孚通信", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "通信网络设备及器件", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20150217", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 248.7, "pe_ttm": 116.8183, "pb": 43.416, "dv_ttm": 0.3443, "total_mv": 27128817.75, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [52.8, 49.7, 51.6, 54.3, 57.2, 54.0], "rev_series": [8.7, 10.3, 12.0, 19.4, 32.5, 51.6], "np_series": [2.8, 3.1, 4.0, 7.3, 13.4, 20.2], "roe_series": [22.0, 16.5, 16.3, 25.1, 37.5, 42.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 55.4, "np_ttm": 23.2, "ocf_ttm": 22.6, "fcf_ttm": 17.4, "fcf_yield": 0.6, "ocf_yield": 0.8, "gm_median": 54.0, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -1.2, "npm_median": 37.6, "roe_median": 25.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.4, "fix_assets": 13.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 43.42, "capex_dep": 2.69, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 17.6, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 46.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 62.8, "np_cagr3": 71.1, "rev_yoy": 15.1, "np_yoy": 33.9, "np_vol": 28.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 21, "fwd_pe": 71.5, "fwd_pe2": 45.3, "fwd_g1": 63.0, "fwd_g2": 58.0, "peg": 1.23, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["无源光器件", 27.0], ["光无源器件", 27.0], ["有源光器件", 22.0], ["光有源器件", 22.0]], "ret_prev_year": 217.6, "ret_prev2_year": 43.9, "ret_ytd": 72.1, "ret_pivot": 584.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.8, "ret_60": -15.4, "ret_120": 7.4, "ret_250": 171.7, "mdd_250": -54.9, "vol_250": 92.8, "pos_52w": 70.1}, "S": {"duration": 95, "pricing": 67, "hard": 29, "bondness": 18}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 116.8 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 18%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(21 篇研报)前瞻 PE 71.5 倍,次年 45.3 倍,PEG 1.23。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 54.0%),硬资产占比 18%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.6%(经营现金流/市值 0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 54.0%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 2.69 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 116.8 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 172%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 93%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / -15% / 7%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "天孚通信:PE 比行业中位高 32.2倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 24.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.2个百分点。"]}}