{"F": {"ts_code": "300393.SZ", "name": "中来股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "光伏设备", "sw3": "光伏电池组件", "ind": "光伏设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20140912", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.08, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.658, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 662493.4592, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.1, 11.5, 15.6, 15.4, 3.2, -14.3], "rev_series": [50.8, 58.2, 95.8, 122.6, 61.0, 44.5], "np_series": [1.0, -3.1, 4.0, 5.3, -8.6, -13.7], "roe_series": [3.0, -8.9, 11.0, 12.7, -22.0, -51.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 23.1, "np_ttm": -15.5, "ocf_ttm": 6.1, "fcf_ttm": 3.2, "fcf_yield": 4.9, "ocf_yield": 9.2, "gm_median": 11.5, "gm_std": 11.2, "gm_stab": 0.02, "gm_chg_2022": -2.5, "npm_median": -7.1, "roe_median": -8.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 40.8, "fix_assets": 53.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.66, "capex_dep": 0.46, "interest_debt": 67.6, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 82.8, "debt_mv": 102.1, "payout": 28.8, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -22.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -64.7, "np_yoy": -104.5, "np_vol": 227.1, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["组件", 20.0], ["光伏组件", 20.0], ["光伏辅材", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 7.2, "ret_prev2_year": -38.7, "ret_ytd": -9.3, "ret_pivot": 5.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.7, "ret_60": -25.6, "ret_120": -43.8, "ret_250": -5.0, "mdd_250": -57.3, "vol_250": 60.4, "pos_52w": 48.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 12, "hard": 65, "bondness": 33}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 41%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 11.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.5 个百分点;资产负债率 83%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 41%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 11.5%,稳定度 2%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.9%(经营现金流/市值 9.2%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.5%,稳定度 2%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 41%,资本开支/折旧 0.46 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -5%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 49%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -26% / -44%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光伏设备」73 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 29%。", "中来股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.2个百分点。"]}}