{"F": {"ts_code": "300386.SZ", "name": "飞天诚信", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "计算机设备", "sw3": "其他计算机设备", "ind": "计算机设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20140626", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.55, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.7453, "dv_ttm": 0.0797, "total_mv": 524645.22, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.8, 40.1, 33.0, 32.9, 38.0, 39.6], "rev_series": [9.0, 7.8, 8.7, 7.4, 7.1, 6.9], "np_series": [0.6, -0.5, -1.2, -1.7, -0.8, 0.1], "roe_series": [3.4, -2.6, -6.9, -10.6, -5.1, 0.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.0, "np_ttm": -0.6, "ocf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_yield": -1.6, "ocf_yield": -1.3, "gm_median": 38.0, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -6.8, "npm_median": -10.9, "roe_median": -5.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.9, "fix_assets": 0.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.75, "capex_dep": 3.25, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 10.1, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 100.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -7.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -26.8, "np_yoy": -1101.0, "np_vol": 110.8, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["身份认证产品", 40.0], ["智能终端", 27.0], ["其他业务", 12.0], ["合计特别调整", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 7.5, "ret_prev2_year": 56.6, "ret_ytd": -30.5, "ret_pivot": 31.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.8, "ret_60": 26.3, "ret_120": -19.5, "ret_250": -41.8, "mdd_250": -56.6, "vol_250": 49.8, "pos_52w": 59.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 55, "hard": 1, "bondness": 58}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 10%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 38.0%),硬资产占比 1%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.6%(经营现金流/市值 -1.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 38.0%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 3.25 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -42%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 26% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「计算机设备」88 家中位:PE 51.7 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 35.8% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 49%。", "飞天诚信:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.8个百分点。"]}}