{"F": {"ts_code": "300383.SZ", "name": "光环新网", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信服务", "sw3": "通信应用增值服务", "ind": "通信服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20140129", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.17, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.8421, "dv_ttm": 0.1643, "total_mv": 2187670.4376, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.1, 20.6, 15.4, 16.0, 16.5, 14.0], "rev_series": [74.8, 77.0, 71.9, 78.6, 72.8, 71.8], "np_series": [9.1, 8.4, -8.8, 3.9, 3.8, -7.6], "roe_series": [10.4, 7.5, -7.0, 3.2, 3.0, -6.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 67.9, "np_ttm": -8.1, "ocf_ttm": 15.9, "fcf_ttm": -2.0, "fcf_yield": -0.9, "ocf_yield": 7.3, "gm_median": 16.0, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -5.7, "npm_median": 4.8, "roe_median": 3.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 62.0, "fix_assets": 123.9, "goodwill_ratio": 1.1, "pb_calc": 1.85, "capex_dep": 1.64, "interest_debt": 56.5, "debt_ebitda": 4.0, "debt_ratio": 37.9, "debt_mv": 25.8, "payout": 37.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -0.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -10.3, "np_yoy": -47.1, "np_vol": 158.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 101.4, "fwd_pe2": 70.6, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 44.0, "peg": 2.3, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["云计算及相关服务", 24.0], ["云计算", 24.0], ["IDC及其增值服务", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": -13.9, "ret_prev2_year": 52.1, "ret_ytd": -2.6, "ret_pivot": 52.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.4, "ret_60": 0.9, "ret_120": -19.7, "ret_250": -26.3, "mdd_250": -36.6, "vol_250": 59.6, "pos_52w": 64.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 42, "hard": 99, "bondness": 46}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 62%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 16.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 62%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.0%,稳定度 86%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.9%(经营现金流/市值 7.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.0%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 62%,资本开支/折旧 1.64 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / 1% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信服务」38 家中位:PE 82.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 20.1% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 34%。", "光环新网:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 49.9个百分点。"]}}