{"F": {"ts_code": "300378.SZ", "name": "鼎捷数智", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "横向通用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20140127", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 39.74, "pe_ttm": 35.164, "pb": 4.3573, "dv_ttm": 0.3127, "total_mv": 1079158.3778, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [66.3, 66.3, 65.3, 61.9, 58.3, 58.5], "rev_series": [15.0, 17.9, 20.0, 22.3, 23.3, 24.3], "np_series": [1.2, 1.1, 1.3, 1.5, 1.6, 1.6], "roe_series": [8.3, 7.0, 7.6, 7.7, 7.3, 7.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 24.9, "np_ttm": 3.1, "ocf_ttm": 2.8, "fcf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_yield": -0.8, "ocf_yield": 2.6, "gm_median": 61.9, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -1.0, "npm_median": 6.9, "roe_median": 7.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.7, "fix_assets": 9.1, "goodwill_ratio": 2.5, "pb_calc": 4.3, "capex_dep": 7.78, "interest_debt": 13.2, "debt_ebitda": 4.0, "debt_ratio": 50.2, "debt_mv": 12.2, "payout": 20.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.8, "np_cagr3": 7.0, "rev_yoy": 5.4, "np_yoy": 318.5, "np_vol": 8.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.8, "consensus_n": 18, "fwd_pe": 46.6, "fwd_pe2": 41.9, "fwd_g1": -25.0, "fwd_g2": 11.0, "peg": 4.24, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["数智技术服务", 22.0], ["自研数智软件产品", 14.0], ["数智一体化软硬件解决方案", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 75.5, "ret_prev2_year": 22.2, "ret_ytd": -12.0, "ret_pivot": 129.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.4, "ret_60": 14.2, "ret_120": -7.2, "ret_250": -32.5, "mdd_250": -59.2, "vol_250": 64.7, "pos_52w": 61.4}, "S": {"duration": 58, "pricing": 71, "hard": 28, "bondness": 34}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 35.2 倍、股息率 0.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 61.9%、固定资产占比 18%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 61.9%),硬资产占比 18%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.8%(经营现金流/市值 2.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 61.9%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.0 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 7.78 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 35.2 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -32%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 65%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 14% / -7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "鼎捷数智:PE 比行业中位低 47.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.9个百分点。"]}}