{"F": {"ts_code": "300364.SZ", "name": "中文在线", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "出版", "sw3": "大众出版", "ind": "出版", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20150121", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 25.71, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 71.1027, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1872974.0142, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [62.7, 70.9, 49.9, 44.7, 33.0, 36.2], "rev_series": [9.8, 11.9, 11.8, 14.1, 11.6, 16.6], "np_series": [0.5, 1.0, -3.6, 0.9, -2.4, -6.7], "roe_series": [3.4, 6.6, -26.7, 7.5, -21.8, -104.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.8, "np_ttm": -4.9, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_yield": -0.3, "ocf_yield": 0.1, "gm_median": 44.7, "gm_std": 13.4, "gm_stab": 0.7, "gm_chg_2022": -12.8, "npm_median": -20.9, "roe_median": -21.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.3, "fix_assets": 0.0, "goodwill_ratio": 8.4, "pb_calc": 71.1, "capex_dep": 37.51, "interest_debt": 4.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 74.8, "debt_mv": 2.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 12.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 3.9, "np_yoy": 81.0, "np_vol": 240.2, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 857.0, "fwd_pe2": 144.8, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 492.0, "peg": 1.74, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["短剧及IP衍生品业务", 36.0], ["网络文学及相关业务", 13.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 2.4, "ret_prev2_year": -4.7, "ret_ytd": 2.3, "ret_pivot": 54.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.6, "ret_60": 17.7, "ret_120": -4.7, "ret_250": -24.3, "mdd_250": -56.3, "vol_250": 72.6, "pos_52w": 60.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 51, "hard": 0, "bondness": 11}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -4.9 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 75%,有息负债 4 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 0%,毛利率近 5 年中位 44.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.3%(经营现金流/市值 0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 44.7%,稳定度 70%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 0%,资本开支/折旧 37.51 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 73%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / 18% / -5%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「出版」29 家中位:PE 32.6 / 股息率 2.2% / 毛利率 34.7% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 50%。", "中文在线:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.4个百分点。"]}}