{"F": {"ts_code": "300363.SZ", "name": "博腾股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗服务", "sw3": "医疗研发外包", "ind": "医疗服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20140129", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.67, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.1565, "dv_ttm": 0.4565, "total_mv": 1068950.8074, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.7, 41.4, 52.0, 40.7, 24.6, 29.9], "rev_series": [20.7, 31.1, 70.3, 36.7, 30.1, 34.2], "np_series": [3.2, 5.2, 20.1, 2.7, -2.9, 1.0], "roe_series": [10.0, 14.2, 40.2, 4.5, -5.2, 1.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 35.9, "np_ttm": -1.5, "ocf_ttm": 8.1, "fcf_ttm": 7.0, "fcf_yield": 6.6, "ocf_yield": 7.6, "gm_median": 40.7, "gm_std": 9.6, "gm_stab": 0.76, "gm_chg_2022": 10.3, "npm_median": 4.8, "roe_median": 4.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.2, "fix_assets": 29.2, "goodwill_ratio": 3.7, "pb_calc": 2.16, "capex_dep": 0.33, "interest_debt": 12.8, "debt_ebitda": 1.9, "debt_ratio": 35.4, "debt_mv": 12.0, "payout": 74.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -21.4, "np_cagr3": -63.6, "rev_yoy": 10.4, "np_yoy": -928.6, "np_vol": 170.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 210.8, "fwd_pe2": 29.9, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 605.0, "peg": 0.35, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["临床后期及商业化业务", 70.0], ["临床早期业务", 15.0], ["其他业务", 8.0], ["合计特别调整", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 47.6, "ret_prev2_year": -36.2, "ret_ytd": -15.0, "ret_pivot": 72.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.8, "ret_60": 42.4, "ret_120": -6.2, "ret_250": -19.8, "mdd_250": -54.6, "vol_250": 61.9, "pos_52w": 67.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 58, "hard": 60, "bondness": 55}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 35%,有息负债 13 亿,经营现金流/市值 7.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 37%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 40.7%,稳定度 76%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.6%(经营现金流/市值 7.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 40.7%,稳定度 76%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 10.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 0.33 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / 42% / -6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗服务」52 家中位:PE 73.1 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 41.3% / 固定资产占比 19% / 分红率 34%。", "博腾股份:PE ;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.3个百分点。"]}}