{"F": {"ts_code": "300354.SZ", "name": "东华测试", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "仪器仪表", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20120920", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 27.93, "pe_ttm": 38.8443, "pb": 4.4413, "dv_ttm": 0.7161, "total_mv": 386328.5979, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [66.1, 67.8, 67.5, 65.5, 66.4, 66.0], "rev_series": [2.1, 2.6, 3.7, 3.8, 5.0, 5.3], "np_series": [0.5, 0.8, 1.2, 0.9, 1.2, 1.4], "roe_series": [12.4, 17.4, 22.3, 13.9, 17.2, 17.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.7, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_yield": 4.1, "ocf_yield": 4.4, "gm_median": 66.4, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.99, "gm_chg_2022": 1.5, "npm_median": 25.6, "roe_median": 17.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.4, "fix_assets": 1.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.44, "capex_dep": 1.14, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 9.5, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 20.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 13.1, "np_cagr3": 4.0, "rev_yoy": -21.0, "np_yoy": -49.0, "np_vol": 31.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.6, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 24.5, "fwd_pe2": 21.1, "fwd_g1": 59.0, "fwd_g2": 16.0, "peg": 1.53, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["结构力学性能测试分析系统结构安全在线", 33.0], ["结构力学性能测试分析系统", 33.0], ["结构安全在线监测及防务装备PHM系统", 10.0], ["监测及防务装备PHM系统", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 31.6, "ret_prev2_year": -30.0, "ret_ytd": -38.3, "ret_pivot": 1.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.8, "ret_60": -10.1, "ret_120": -27.5, "ret_250": -36.6, "mdd_250": -51.4, "vol_250": 47.8, "pos_52w": 51.9}, "S": {"duration": 62, "pricing": 76, "hard": 23, "bondness": 18}, "label": "定价权·品牌", "tags": ["轻资产现金牛"], "text": {"像什么": ["没有硬资产(固定资产占比 14%)但有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 66.4%,稳定度 99%、ROE 近 5 年中位 17.2%。", "自由现金流/市值 4.1%,分红率 20%,分子跟得上通胀。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 66.4%),硬资产占比 14%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "分子跟得上通胀、久期不长,加息期抗跌;放水期弹性不如科技。属船票一侧的'非债券'部分。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.1%(经营现金流/市值 4.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 66.4%,稳定度 99%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 1.14 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 38.8 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -37%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -10% / -28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "东华测试:PE 比行业中位低 11.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 37.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.4个百分点。"]}}