{"F": {"ts_code": "300353.SZ", "name": "东土科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "其他通信设备", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20120927", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.37, "pe_ttm": 69.242, "pb": 4.5372, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1006579.5136, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.5, 43.6, 37.6, 39.2, 47.1, 48.0], "rev_series": [5.3, 9.4, 11.0, 11.6, 10.3, 9.8], "np_series": [-9.1, 0.1, 0.2, 2.6, 0.4, 0.8], "roe_series": [-72.3, 0.6, 2.0, 16.6, 1.8, 3.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.0, "np_ttm": 1.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": -1.9, "fcf_yield": -1.9, "ocf_yield": 0.1, "gm_median": 43.6, "gm_std": 4.1, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": 14.1, "npm_median": 4.1, "roe_median": 2.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.0, "fix_assets": 3.6, "goodwill_ratio": 2.4, "pb_calc": 4.54, "capex_dep": 7.14, "interest_debt": 10.5, "debt_ebitda": 6.4, "debt_ratio": 48.9, "debt_mv": 10.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -3.9, "np_cagr3": 60.1, "rev_yoy": -20.8, "np_yoy": 70.5, "np_vol": 453.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 37.0], ["工业网络通信", 25.0], ["工业级网络通信产品", 25.0], ["工业操作系统及相关软件服务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 77.4, "ret_prev2_year": 18.6, "ret_ytd": -19.6, "ret_pivot": 77.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -14.8, "ret_60": -20.2, "ret_120": -27.2, "ret_250": -35.0, "mdd_250": -42.5, "vol_250": 55.0, "pos_52w": 57.5}, "S": {"duration": 82, "pricing": 65, "hard": 13, "bondness": 35}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 69.2 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 8%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 43.6%),硬资产占比 8%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.9%(经营现金流/市值 0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 43.6%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 14.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 7.14 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 69.2 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -35%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -15% / -20% / -27%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "东土科技:PE 比行业中位低 15.4倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.2个百分点。"]}}