{"F": {"ts_code": "300352.SZ", "name": "ST信源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20120912", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.65, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.0698, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 384203.3865, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [67.6, 59.2, 57.1, 74.8, 55.6, 59.7], "rev_series": [6.4, 6.8, 5.4, 6.8, 5.2, 3.1], "np_series": [0.3, -4.4, -1.9, 0.1, -1.4, -3.4], "roe_series": [1.2, -22.4, -11.4, 0.4, -9.8, -27.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.0, "np_ttm": -3.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 1.4, "ocf_yield": 1.1, "gm_median": 59.2, "gm_std": 6.9, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -10.6, "npm_median": -34.7, "roe_median": -11.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.2, "fix_assets": 3.2, "goodwill_ratio": 2.3, "pb_calc": 4.07, "capex_dep": -0.96, "interest_debt": 0.7, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 44.8, "debt_mv": 1.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -17.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -8.6, "np_yoy": -15.6, "np_vol": 1025.3, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 44.0], ["软件产品", 16.0], ["系统集成设备", 12.0], ["系统集成", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 16.1, "ret_prev2_year": 11.2, "ret_ytd": -56.8, "ret_pivot": -31.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.0, "ret_60": 4.3, "ret_120": -62.7, "ret_250": -62.8, "mdd_250": -73.0, "vol_250": 60.6, "pos_52w": 33.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 64, "hard": 31, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -3.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 45%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 59.2%),硬资产占比 19%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 59.2%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 -0.96 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -63%,最大回撤 -73%,年化波动 61%,现价在 52 周高点的 34%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 4% / -63%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "ST信源:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.4个百分点。"]}}