{"F": {"ts_code": "300351.SZ", "name": "永贵电器", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "轨交设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "轨交设备Ⅲ", "ind": "轨交设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20120920", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.67, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.3382, "dv_ttm": 0.2795, "total_mv": 570534.0698, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.4, 34.8, 30.8, 29.4, 27.7, 25.0], "rev_series": [10.5, 11.5, 15.1, 15.2, 20.2, 22.4], "np_series": [1.0, 1.2, 1.5, 1.0, 1.3, 0.6], "roe_series": [5.4, 6.0, 7.1, 4.4, 5.3, 2.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 23.5, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_yield": -1.4, "ocf_yield": 2.4, "gm_median": 29.4, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -5.6, "npm_median": 6.4, "roe_median": 5.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.8, "fix_assets": 8.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 2.3, "capex_dep": 1.87, "interest_debt": 10.1, "debt_ebitda": 7.2, "debt_ratio": 48.2, "debt_mv": 17.8, "payout": 25.6, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 14.1, "np_cagr3": -26.1, "rev_yoy": 10.7, "np_yoy": -129.2, "np_vol": 32.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 43.8, "fwd_pe2": 33.3, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 31.0, "peg": 1.41, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["车载与能源信息", 30.0], ["轨道交通与工业", 16.0], ["特种装备及其它", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 2.0, "ret_prev2_year": -14.0, "ret_ytd": -18.5, "ret_pivot": 5.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.0, "ret_60": -7.7, "ret_120": -17.9, "ret_250": -21.9, "mdd_250": -56.7, "vol_250": 53.2, "pos_52w": 54.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 50, "hard": 28, "bondness": 32}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 48%,有息负债 10 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 18%,毛利率近 5 年中位 29.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.4%(经营现金流/市值 2.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.4%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 1.87 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -22%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -8% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「轨交设备Ⅱ」32 家中位:PE 26.2 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 30.0% / 固定资产占比 13% / 分红率 49%。", "永贵电器:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 1.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.8个百分点。"]}}