{"F": {"ts_code": "300350.SZ", "name": "华鹏飞", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "物流", "sw3": "中间产品及消费品供应链服务", "ind": "物流", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20120821", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.43, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.8483, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 248971.4489, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.0, 25.3, 18.1, 20.3, 14.1, 10.1], "rev_series": [6.1, 5.4, 5.1, 3.6, 3.3, 4.6], "np_series": [0.5, 0.5, -0.7, 1.0, 0.2, -0.4], "roe_series": [11.6, 7.5, -8.1, 11.6, 1.9, -4.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.3, "np_ttm": -0.5, "ocf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_ttm": -2.8, "fcf_yield": -11.2, "ocf_yield": -3.9, "gm_median": 18.1, "gm_std": 5.2, "gm_stab": 0.71, "gm_chg_2022": -10.9, "npm_median": 5.0, "roe_median": 1.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.0, "fix_assets": 3.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.85, "capex_dep": 6.03, "interest_debt": 1.5, "debt_ebitda": 26.4, "debt_ratio": 34.5, "debt_mv": 6.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -3.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 89.5, "np_yoy": -572.7, "np_vol": 194.9, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 57.0], ["国内综合物流服务", 29.0], ["国际物流服务", 26.0], ["合计特别调整", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 16.9, "ret_prev2_year": 5.3, "ret_ytd": -29.8, "ret_pivot": 1.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.5, "ret_60": 5.0, "ret_120": -32.2, "ret_250": -32.6, "mdd_250": -50.2, "vol_250": 37.3, "pos_52w": 58.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 38, "hard": 42, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 34%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 -3.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 26%,毛利率近 5 年中位 18.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -11.2%(经营现金流/市值 -3.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.1%,稳定度 71%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 6.03 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -33%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 37%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 5% / -32%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「物流」48 家中位:PE 21.4 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 10.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 43%。", "华鹏飞:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.4个百分点。"]}}