{"F": {"ts_code": "300348.SZ", "name": "长亮科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20120817", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.42, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.0108, "dv_ttm": 0.0673, "total_mv": 846494.0206, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [50.3, 42.2, 33.6, 34.0, 32.8, 25.1], "rev_series": [15.5, 15.7, 18.9, 19.2, 17.4, 19.6], "np_series": [2.4, 1.3, 0.2, 0.3, 0.2, 0.2], "roe_series": [16.6, 8.8, 1.5, 2.1, 1.0, 1.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 21.3, "np_ttm": -0.0, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 0.7, "ocf_yield": 1.9, "gm_median": 33.6, "gm_std": 5.4, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -16.7, "npm_median": 1.3, "roe_median": 1.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.5, "fix_assets": 1.6, "goodwill_ratio": 1.3, "pb_calc": 4.01, "capex_dep": 7.24, "interest_debt": 1.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 29.5, "debt_mv": 1.3, "payout": 27.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.2, "np_cagr3": -2.8, "rev_yoy": 25.9, "np_yoy": -133.7, "np_vol": 44.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["数字金融业务解决方案", 29.0], ["大数据应用系统解决方案", 16.0], ["全面价值管理解决方案", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 8.3, "ret_prev2_year": 38.9, "ret_ytd": -32.7, "ret_pivot": 31.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.9, "ret_60": 12.9, "ret_120": -22.8, "ret_250": -43.9, "mdd_250": -54.4, "vol_250": 38.0, "pos_52w": 57.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 50, "hard": 9, "bondness": 33}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 为负(亏损),估值里约 100% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 6%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 33.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.7%(经营现金流/市值 1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.6%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -16.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 7.24 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -44%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 13% / -23%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "长亮科技:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 15.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.3个百分点。"]}}