{"F": {"ts_code": "300347.SZ", "name": "泰格医药", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗服务", "sw3": "医疗研发外包", "ind": "医疗服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20120817", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 50.0, "pe_ttm": 471.0546, "pb": 2.2103, "dv_ttm": 0.2428, "total_mv": 4305130.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [47.4, 43.6, 39.6, 38.6, 34.0, 27.4], "rev_series": [31.9, 52.1, 70.9, 73.8, 66.0, 68.3], "np_series": [17.5, 28.7, 20.1, 20.2, 4.1, 8.9], "roe_series": [17.2, 16.8, 10.6, 10.0, 1.9, 4.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 72.9, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 11.4, "fcf_ttm": 9.2, "fcf_yield": 2.1, "ocf_yield": 2.6, "gm_median": 38.6, "gm_std": 5.5, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -7.8, "npm_median": 29.1, "roe_median": 10.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.5, "fix_assets": 12.5, "goodwill_ratio": 12.4, "pb_calc": 2.21, "capex_dep": 1.54, "interest_debt": 23.4, "debt_ebitda": 2.1, "debt_ratio": 17.2, "debt_mv": 5.4, "payout": 24.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.2, "np_cagr3": -23.8, "rev_yoy": 14.1, "np_yoy": -207.8, "np_vol": 70.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 16, "fwd_pe": 49.8, "fwd_pe2": 32.4, "fwd_g1": 847.0, "fwd_g2": 53.0, "peg": 0.94, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 25.0], ["服务业", 25.0], ["服务业：临床试验相关服务及实验室服务", 13.0], ["临床研究相关咨询服务", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 4.4, "ret_prev2_year": 0.4, "ret_ytd": -11.6, "ret_pivot": 1.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.0, "ret_60": 26.3, "ret_120": -9.1, "ret_250": -27.0, "mdd_250": -46.3, "vol_250": 48.1, "pos_52w": 74.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 53, "hard": 7, "bondness": 36}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 471.1 倍,估值里约 99% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 4%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(16 篇研报)前瞻 PE 49.8 倍,次年 32.4 倍,PEG 0.94。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 38.6%),硬资产占比 4%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.1%(经营现金流/市值 2.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 38.6%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 1.54 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 471.1 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -27%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / 26% / -9%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗服务」52 家中位:PE 73.1 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 41.3% / 固定资产占比 19% / 分红率 34%。", "泰格医药:PE 比行业中位高 398.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 14.4个百分点。"]}}