{"F": {"ts_code": "300345.SZ", "name": "华民股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "光伏设备", "sw3": "硅料硅片", "ind": "光伏设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20120801", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.46, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 12.6691, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 433674.1017, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.1, 24.7, 14.3, 5.4, -11.0, 3.1], "rev_series": [1.5, 1.6, 2.5, 11.8, 10.3, 10.0], "np_series": [0.1, 0.0, -0.3, -2.0, -3.0, -1.7], "roe_series": [1.0, 0.9, -4.7, -21.2, -40.5, -31.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.4, "np_ttm": -2.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -0.6, "ocf_yield": 0.3, "gm_median": 5.4, "gm_std": 11.9, "gm_stab": -1.21, "gm_chg_2022": -13.8, "npm_median": -18.6, "roe_median": -21.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 58.7, "fix_assets": 19.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 12.67, "capex_dep": 0.29, "interest_debt": 6.2, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 93.1, "debt_mv": 14.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 58.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -35.5, "np_yoy": -54.3, "np_vol": 339.5, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["光伏产品", 43.0], ["耐磨产品", 5.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 11.2, "ret_prev2_year": -26.8, "ret_ytd": 19.0, "ret_pivot": 16.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 28.8, "ret_60": 16.2, "ret_120": -3.4, "ret_250": -20.3, "mdd_250": -44.8, "vol_250": 70.0, "pos_52w": 77.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 6, "hard": 94, "bondness": 3}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 59%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 5.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.8 个百分点;资产负债率 93%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 59%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 5.4%,稳定度 -121%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.6%(经营现金流/市值 0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 5.4%,稳定度 -121%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 59%,资本开支/折旧 0.29 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 70%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 29% / 16% / -3%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光伏设备」73 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 29%。", "华民股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 36.1个百分点。"]}}