{"F": {"ts_code": "300342.SZ", "name": "天银机电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "家用电器", "sw2": "家电零部件Ⅱ", "sw3": "家电零部件Ⅲ", "ind": "家电零部件Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20120726", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 32.3, "pe_ttm": 692.9202, "pb": 8.7287, "dv_ttm": 0.0619, "total_mv": 1372863.373, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.6, 30.2, 23.7, 24.0, 23.7, 24.8], "rev_series": [9.0, 10.4, 8.4, 10.4, 10.5, 8.2], "np_series": [1.3, 1.0, 0.1, 0.3, 0.9, 0.1], "roe_series": [8.7, 6.6, 0.5, 2.2, 5.8, 0.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.4, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_yield": 0.0, "ocf_yield": 0.5, "gm_median": 24.0, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -9.9, "npm_median": 3.2, "roe_median": 2.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.1, "fix_assets": 3.1, "goodwill_ratio": 9.7, "pb_calc": 8.73, "capex_dep": 1.69, "interest_debt": 0.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 26.8, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": 66.4, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -0.7, "np_cagr3": 17.8, "rev_yoy": 5.3, "np_yoy": 39.4, "np_vol": 162.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 248.5, "fwd_pe2": 190.0, "fwd_g1": 179.0, "fwd_g2": 31.0, "peg": 8.02, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["冰箱压缩机用配套产品", 53.0], ["雷达与航天信息化装备", 24.0], ["雷达", 24.0]], "ret_prev_year": 105.1, "ret_prev2_year": 6.3, "ret_ytd": -2.4, "ret_pivot": 166.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.7, "ret_60": -35.7, "ret_120": -20.1, "ret_250": 59.8, "mdd_250": -59.7, "vol_250": 76.0, "pos_52w": 44.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 47, "hard": 23, "bondness": 45}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 692.9 倍,估值里约 99% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 14%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 248.5 倍,次年 190.0 倍,PEG 8.02。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 14%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.0%(经营现金流/市值 0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.0%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 1.69 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 692.9 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 60%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 76%,现价在 52 周高点的 44%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -36% / -20%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家电零部件Ⅱ」34 家中位:PE 50.3 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 18.8% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 39%。", "天银机电:PE 比行业中位高 642.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.5个百分点。"]}}