{"F": {"ts_code": "300339.SZ", "name": "润和软件", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20120718", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 35.25, "pe_ttm": 234.3088, "pb": 7.6652, "dv_ttm": 0.3937, "total_mv": 2807348.07, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.4, 28.4, 24.7, 25.4, 23.7, 23.3], "rev_series": [24.8, 27.6, 29.7, 31.1, 34.0, 39.8], "np_series": [1.7, 1.8, 1.1, 1.6, 1.6, 1.0], "roe_series": [5.9, 5.9, 3.4, 5.0, 4.7, 2.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 41.1, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_yield": -0.4, "ocf_yield": -0.0, "gm_median": 24.7, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -4.7, "npm_median": 4.9, "roe_median": 4.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.0, "fix_assets": 5.5, "goodwill_ratio": 16.1, "pb_calc": 7.67, "capex_dep": 4.14, "interest_debt": 12.9, "debt_ebitda": 3.8, "debt_ratio": 38.5, "debt_mv": 4.6, "payout": 116.7, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 10.2, "np_cagr3": -2.7, "rev_yoy": 7.5, "np_yoy": 38.2, "np_vol": 35.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 136.6, "fwd_pe2": 106.8, "fwd_g1": 71.0, "fwd_g2": 28.0, "peg": 4.88, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["金融科技业务", 23.0], ["智能物联业务", 20.0], ["智慧能源信息化", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": -0.9, "ret_prev2_year": 93.1, "ret_ytd": -28.7, "ret_pivot": 58.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.8, "ret_60": -10.5, "ret_120": -21.4, "ret_250": -44.9, "mdd_250": -50.5, "vol_250": 46.7, "pos_52w": 51.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 49, "hard": 14, "bondness": 59}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["商誉占比高", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 234.3 倍,估值里约 98% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 9%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(5 篇研报)前瞻 PE 136.6 倍,次年 106.8 倍,PEG 4.88。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 9%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.4%(经营现金流/市值 -0.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.7%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 4.14 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 234.3 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -45%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -10% / -21%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "润和软件:PE 比行业中位高 150.3倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点。"]}}