{"F": {"ts_code": "300338.SZ", "name": "*ST开元", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "社会服务", "sw2": "教育", "sw3": "培训教育", "ind": "教育", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20120726", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.15, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": null, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 126826.7805, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [57.9, 55.1, 61.9, 66.6, 61.1, 49.8], "rev_series": [8.5, 9.3, 6.6, 3.4, 1.7, 1.4], "np_series": [-7.7, -4.6, 0.3, -2.7, -1.4, -1.4], "roe_series": [-79.2, -171.8, 58.9, null, null, null], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.3, "np_ttm": -1.3, "ocf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_yield": -5.7, "ocf_yield": -5.6, "gm_median": 61.1, "gm_std": 5.8, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 3.9, "npm_median": -80.6, "roe_median": -56.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.3, "fix_assets": 0.2, "goodwill_ratio": 11.1, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": 0.16, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 140.5, "debt_mv": 1.7, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -40.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -6.2, "np_yoy": 19.8, "np_vol": 386.9, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -21.8, "ret_prev2_year": 9.2, "ret_ytd": -17.1, "ret_pivot": 30.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.8, "ret_60": 2.6, "ret_120": -20.1, "ret_250": -26.9, "mdd_250": -47.5, "vol_250": 48.5, "pos_52w": 67.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 72, "hard": 8, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 140%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -5.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 61.1%),硬资产占比 5%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.7%(经营现金流/市值 -5.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 61.1%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 0.16 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -27%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 3% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「教育」17 家中位:PE 96.5 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 43.0% / 固定资产占比 6% / 分红率 49%。", "*ST开元:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 18.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点。"]}}