{"F": {"ts_code": "300333.SZ", "name": "兆日科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "计算机设备", "sw3": "其他计算机设备", "ind": "计算机设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20120628", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.25, "pe_ttm": 140.8909, "pb": 6.6948, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 411600.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [60.4, 64.9, 50.4, 56.2, 57.0, 51.2], "rev_series": [2.1, 2.0, 1.4, 1.4, 1.3, 1.3], "np_series": [-0.2, 0.3, -1.3, -0.7, -0.5, -0.2], "roe_series": [-2.4, 3.3, -16.6, -10.3, -7.9, -3.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.2, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.5, "ocf_yield": -0.5, "gm_median": 56.2, "gm_std": 5.2, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -10.1, "npm_median": -31.7, "roe_median": -7.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.1, "fix_assets": 0.7, "goodwill_ratio": 1.1, "pb_calc": 6.69, "capex_dep": 0.0, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 2.7, "debt_mv": null, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -3.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -5.6, "np_yoy": 5639.8, "np_vol": 278.9, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["电子支付密码系统", 43.0], ["银企通系统", 4.0], ["支付管理系统", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -36.7, "ret_prev2_year": 146.1, "ret_ytd": 6.5, "ret_pivot": 118.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 38.1, "ret_60": 23.6, "ret_120": 22.5, "ret_250": -20.6, "mdd_250": -55.5, "vol_250": 58.9, "pos_52w": 79.4}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 64, "hard": 18, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 141 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 3%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 56.2%),硬资产占比 11%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.5%(经营现金流/市值 -0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 56.2%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 140.9 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 59%,现价在 52 周高点的 79%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 38% / 24% / 22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「计算机设备」88 家中位:PE 51.7 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 35.8% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 49%。", "兆日科技:PE 比行业中位高 89.2倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 20.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点。"]}}