{"F": {"ts_code": "300326.SZ", "name": "ST凯利", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗器械", "sw3": "医疗耗材", "ind": "医疗器械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20120613", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.32, "pe_ttm": 20.1394, "pb": 1.5594, "dv_ttm": 1.5823, "total_mv": 453152.0264, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [66.6, 61.9, 63.8, 51.7, 50.6, 53.7], "rev_series": [10.6, 12.7, 11.7, 9.6, 9.8, 9.6], "np_series": [-1.3, 1.6, -0.2, 1.1, -1.1, 1.3], "roe_series": [-4.7, 6.0, -0.8, 4.0, -3.8, 4.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.8, "np_ttm": 2.3, "ocf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_yield": 4.5, "ocf_yield": 5.2, "gm_median": 53.7, "gm_std": 5.4, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -2.9, "npm_median": 13.2, "roe_median": 4.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.2, "fix_assets": 1.9, "goodwill_ratio": 16.7, "pb_calc": 1.56, "capex_dep": 0.7, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 5.7, "debt_mv": 1.1, "payout": 45.7, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -6.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -34.0, "np_yoy": 205.7, "np_vol": 292.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 75.0, "earn_yield": 5.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["椎体扩张球囊导管系统", 17.0], ["椎体成形微创产品", 17.0], ["射频消融电极产品", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": -12.8, "ret_prev2_year": 3.7, "ret_ytd": 13.3, "ret_pivot": 60.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.9, "ret_60": 5.5, "ret_120": 3.8, "ret_250": 10.1, "mdd_250": -26.1, "vol_250": 29.8, "pos_52w": 88.8}, "S": {"duration": 40, "pricing": 64, "hard": 10, "bondness": 46}, "label": "轻资产现金牛", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "商誉占比高"], "text": {"像什么": ["固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 53.7%,自由现金流/市值 4.5%:现金机器,久期短。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 53.7%),硬资产占比 6%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "久期短、无杠杆,加息期相对安全;放水期跑不过科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.5%(经营现金流/市值 5.2%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 53.7%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 0.70 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.1 倍 粗算,约 75%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 10%,最大回撤 -26%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 89%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 6% / 4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗器械」140 家中位:PE 38.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 55.4% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 45%。", "ST凯利:PE 比行业中位低 18.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 15.7个百分点。"]}}