{"F": {"ts_code": "300323.SZ", "name": "华灿光电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "LED", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20120601", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.79, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.6529, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1751215.7052, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [4.2, 8.8, 8.2, -8.5, -1.6, 6.2], "rev_series": [26.4, 31.6, 23.5, 29.0, 41.3, 54.1], "np_series": [0.2, 0.9, -1.5, -8.5, -6.1, -4.4], "roe_series": [0.3, 1.5, -2.3, -12.2, -8.5, -6.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 70.6, "np_ttm": -3.2, "ocf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_ttm": -8.7, "fcf_yield": -4.9, "ocf_yield": -0.4, "gm_median": 6.2, "gm_std": 6.7, "gm_stab": -0.08, "gm_chg_2022": 3.9, "npm_median": -8.1, "roe_median": -6.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 46.3, "fix_assets": 71.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.65, "capex_dep": 0.99, "interest_debt": 56.7, "debt_ebitda": 7.5, "debt_ratio": 57.2, "debt_mv": 32.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 31.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 65.2, "np_yoy": 101.8, "np_vol": 300.1, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["其他业务", 32.0], ["LED芯片", 15.0], ["蓝宝石LED衬底", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.6, "ret_prev2_year": 13.1, "ret_ytd": 35.2, "ret_pivot": 165.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.1, "ret_60": -29.3, "ret_120": -17.4, "ret_250": 10.4, "mdd_250": -54.9, "vol_250": 68.8, "pos_52w": 48.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 14, "hard": 74, "bondness": 15}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 46%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 6.2%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.9 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 7.5 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 46%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 6.2%,稳定度 -8%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.9%(经营现金流/市值 -0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 6.2%,稳定度 -8%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 46%,资本开支/折旧 0.99 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 10%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 69%,现价在 52 周高点的 49%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -29% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "华灿光电:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.9个百分点。"]}}