{"F": {"ts_code": "300322.SZ", "name": "硕贝德", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "消费电子零部件及组装", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20120608", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.84, "pe_ttm": 145.4182, "pb": 7.9555, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 820708.1488, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.2, 20.4, 18.8, 19.5, 22.8, 22.5], "rev_series": [18.5, 19.5, 15.5, 16.5, 18.6, 27.7], "np_series": [0.3, 0.5, -0.9, -1.9, -0.6, 0.6], "roe_series": [3.0, 3.5, -6.6, -17.2, -6.4, 6.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 31.2, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_ttm": -2.0, "fcf_yield": -2.5, "ocf_yield": -0.3, "gm_median": 20.4, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -2.4, "npm_median": -3.7, "roe_median": -6.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.4, "fix_assets": 7.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 7.96, "capex_dep": 2.87, "interest_debt": 15.7, "debt_ebitda": 7.2, "debt_ratio": 70.4, "debt_mv": 19.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 21.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 28.8, "np_yoy": -24.6, "np_vol": 168.2, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 62.6, "fwd_pe2": 44.6, "fwd_g1": 132.0, "fwd_g2": 40.0, "peg": 1.56, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["天线及模组", 33.0], ["线束及连接件", 19.0], ["线束及新能源结构件", 19.0], ["传感器智能模组", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 108.2, "ret_prev2_year": 17.5, "ret_ytd": -34.6, "ret_pivot": 89.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.0, "ret_60": -35.5, "ret_120": -36.3, "ret_250": -34.3, "mdd_250": -56.2, "vol_250": 65.6, "pos_52w": 50.9}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 48, "hard": 31, "bondness": 15}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 145 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 70%,有息负债 16 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 19%,毛利率近 5 年中位 20.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.5%(经营现金流/市值 -0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.4%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 2.87 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 145.4 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -34%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 66%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -36% / -36%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "硕贝德:PE 比行业中位高 98.9倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.4个百分点。"]}}