{"F": {"ts_code": "300318.SZ", "name": "博晖创新", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "生物制品", "sw3": "血液制品", "ind": "生物制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20120523", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.08, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.2631, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 414985.454, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [48.7, 41.0, 32.0, 43.5, 49.1, 39.6], "rev_series": [7.4, 7.1, 8.0, 10.5, 8.5, 8.2], "np_series": [0.1, -3.2, -0.8, -0.2, 0.1, -0.9], "roe_series": [0.6, -28.3, -6.6, -1.8, 0.7, -6.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.2, "np_ttm": -0.9, "ocf_ttm": -1.2, "fcf_ttm": -2.5, "fcf_yield": -6.0, "ocf_yield": -2.9, "gm_median": 41.0, "gm_std": 5.6, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -16.7, "npm_median": -17.3, "roe_median": -6.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 33.6, "fix_assets": 14.8, "goodwill_ratio": 17.9, "pb_calc": 3.26, "capex_dep": 1.96, "interest_debt": 9.3, "debt_ebitda": 11.7, "debt_ratio": 51.1, "debt_mv": 22.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 1.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -2.1, "np_yoy": 16.5, "np_vol": 1738.2, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["人血白蛋白", 14.0], ["静注人免疫球蛋白", 11.0], ["其他生物制品", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.6, "ret_prev2_year": -8.3, "ret_ytd": -19.0, "ret_pivot": 6.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.6, "ret_60": 10.7, "ret_120": -18.5, "ret_250": -20.5, "mdd_250": -48.8, "vol_250": 44.4, "pos_52w": 62.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 54, "hard": 54, "bondness": 34}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "商誉占比高"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.9 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 51%,有息负债 9 亿,经营现金流/市值 -2.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 34%、毛利率 41.0% 两条都占,但所在行业(医药生物)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.0%(经营现金流/市值 -2.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 41.0%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -16.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 1.96 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 11% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「生物制品」55 家中位:PE 32.1 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 75.7% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 40%。", "博晖创新:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 34.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.5个百分点。"]}}