{"F": {"ts_code": "300311.SZ", "name": "任子行", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "横向通用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20120425", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.58, "pe_ttm": 84.8118, "pb": 5.9249, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 375885.6516, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [46.6, 51.3, 54.9, 54.1, 53.4, 66.7], "rev_series": [8.4, 6.5, 7.3, 6.1, 4.7, 4.9], "np_series": [0.1, -0.7, -0.0, -1.2, -0.4, 0.2], "roe_series": [0.6, -8.6, -0.1, -16.2, -5.8, 3.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.1, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_yield": 0.0, "ocf_yield": 0.4, "gm_median": 54.1, "gm_std": 5.4, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 8.3, "npm_median": -8.5, "roe_median": -5.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.5, "fix_assets": 2.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.92, "capex_dep": 1.43, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 45.4, "debt_mv": 0.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -12.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 16.4, "np_yoy": 30.7, "np_vol": 4826.2, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 41.0], ["网资管理", 22.0], ["网络安全", 18.0], ["网安", 18.0]], "ret_prev_year": -24.1, "ret_prev2_year": -4.3, "ret_ytd": 25.7, "ret_pivot": 38.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -16.6, "ret_60": 12.3, "ret_120": 0.5, "ret_250": 3.3, "mdd_250": -27.5, "vol_250": 39.9, "pos_52w": 77.9}, "S": {"duration": 88, "pricing": 70, "hard": 30, "bondness": 21}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 85 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 45%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 54.1%),硬资产占比 18%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.0%(经营现金流/市值 0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 54.1%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 8.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 1.43 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 84.8 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 3%,最大回撤 -28%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -17% / 12% / 0%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "任子行:PE 比行业中位高 2.1倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.7个百分点。"]}}