{"F": {"ts_code": "300307.SZ", "name": "慈星股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "纺织服装设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20120329", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.34, "pe_ttm": 35.5991, "pb": 1.7481, "dv_ttm": 0.2725, "total_mv": 587606.4158, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.6, 25.2, 27.9, 28.1, 29.7, 31.1], "rev_series": [12.3, 21.3, 19.0, 20.3, 22.2, 19.5], "np_series": [-5.3, 0.9, 0.9, 1.1, 2.8, 1.0], "roe_series": [-18.3, 3.4, 3.4, 4.0, 9.2, 3.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 23.0, "np_ttm": 1.7, "ocf_ttm": 4.5, "fcf_ttm": 2.3, "fcf_yield": 4.0, "ocf_yield": 7.7, "gm_median": 28.1, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": 8.2, "npm_median": 5.0, "roe_median": 3.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.0, "fix_assets": 8.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.75, "capex_dep": 2.74, "interest_debt": 1.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 32.3, "debt_mv": 3.3, "payout": 36.1, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 0.8, "np_cagr3": 2.2, "rev_yoy": 31.6, "np_yoy": 64.1, "np_vol": 77.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.8, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 19.3, "fwd_pe2": 13.8, "fwd_g1": 84.0, "fwd_g2": 39.0, "peg": 0.49, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["电脑针织横机", 41.0], ["合计特别调整", 7.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -13.2, "ret_prev2_year": 31.0, "ret_ytd": 4.1, "ret_pivot": 43.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.7, "ret_60": -5.3, "ret_120": 5.2, "ret_250": -9.5, "mdd_250": -30.5, "vol_250": 38.1, "pos_52w": 84.1}, "S": {"duration": 59, "pricing": 58, "hard": 27, "bondness": 35}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 64%,PE TTM 35.6 倍 但前瞻 PE 19.3 倍,PEG 0.49。", "自由现金流 2.3 亿(正),次年预期增速 39%(1 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 17%,毛利率近 5 年中位 28.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.0%(经营现金流/市值 7.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.1%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 8.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 2.74 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 35.6 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -30%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -5% / 5%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "慈星股份:PE 比行业中位低 6.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点。"]}}