{"F": {"ts_code": "300298.SZ", "name": "三诺生物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗器械", "sw3": "医疗设备", "ind": "医疗器械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20120319", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.01, "pe_ttm": 66.8642, "pb": 3.0142, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 891510.2859, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [65.3, 60.0, 58.7, 54.1, 54.9, 48.7], "rev_series": [20.2, 23.6, 28.1, 40.6, 44.4, 46.6], "np_series": [1.9, 1.1, 4.3, 2.8, 3.3, 0.9], "roe_series": [6.9, 3.9, 14.6, 9.2, 10.1, 2.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 49.3, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": 5.7, "fcf_ttm": 4.3, "fcf_yield": 4.8, "ocf_yield": 6.4, "gm_median": 54.9, "gm_std": 4.0, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -6.5, "npm_median": 4.8, "roe_median": 9.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.3, "fix_assets": 18.0, "goodwill_ratio": 15.9, "pb_calc": 2.89, "capex_dep": 1.07, "interest_debt": 9.7, "debt_ebitda": 2.0, "debt_ratio": 42.9, "debt_mv": 10.9, "payout": 38.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 18.3, "np_cagr3": -40.1, "rev_yoy": 12.1, "np_yoy": 22.5, "np_vol": 136.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 15, "fwd_pe": 22.7, "fwd_pe2": 18.4, "fwd_g1": 195.0, "fwd_g2": 23.0, "peg": 0.99, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["血糖监测系统", 41.0], ["血糖测试仪", 41.0], ["即时检测POCT产品", 9.0], ["辅助产品及其他", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": -33.1, "ret_prev2_year": -14.6, "ret_ytd": -6.4, "ret_pivot": -31.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.1, "ret_60": 10.5, "ret_120": -5.2, "ret_250": -24.7, "mdd_250": -36.5, "vol_250": 25.3, "pos_52w": 74.5}, "S": {"duration": 81, "pricing": 64, "hard": 48, "bondness": 21}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["商誉占比高"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 22%,PE TTM 66.9 倍 但前瞻 PE 22.7 倍,PEG 0.99。", "自由现金流 4.3 亿(正),次年预期增速 23%(15 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 30%、毛利率 54.9% 两条都占,但所在行业(医药生物)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.8%(经营现金流/市值 6.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 54.9%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 1.07 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 66.9 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -25%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 25%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 10% / -5%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗器械」140 家中位:PE 38.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 55.4% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 45%。", "三诺生物:PE 比行业中位高 28.3倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.4个百分点。"]}}