{"F": {"ts_code": "300296.SZ", "name": "利亚德", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "LED", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20120315", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.04, "pe_ttm": 66.8118, "pb": 1.7508, "dv_ttm": 1.9819, "total_mv": 1366836.5199, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.0, 30.2, 30.5, 31.0, 28.1, 31.4], "rev_series": [66.3, 88.5, 81.5, 76.1, 71.5, 70.6], "np_series": [-9.8, 6.1, 2.8, 2.9, -8.9, 3.1], "roe_series": [-12.5, 8.1, 3.6, 3.5, -11.0, 3.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 64.2, "np_ttm": 2.0, "ocf_ttm": 8.6, "fcf_ttm": 6.7, "fcf_yield": 4.9, "ocf_yield": 6.3, "gm_median": 30.5, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -0.5, "npm_median": 3.7, "roe_median": 3.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.4, "fix_assets": 15.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 1.75, "capex_dep": 0.89, "interest_debt": 9.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.4, "debt_ratio": 41.0, "debt_mv": 7.0, "payout": 67.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -4.7, "np_cagr3": 3.0, "rev_yoy": -18.3, "np_yoy": -59.7, "np_vol": 205.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["智能显示", 80.0], ["文旅夜游", 9.0], ["其他业务", 6.0], ["合计特别调整", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": -0.3, "ret_prev2_year": 8.5, "ret_ytd": -19.0, "ret_pivot": 35.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.5, "ret_60": -22.5, "ret_120": -44.7, "ret_250": -25.1, "mdd_250": -45.3, "vol_250": 44.3, "pos_52w": 55.3}, "S": {"duration": 81, "pricing": 56, "hard": 18, "bondness": 60}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 66.8 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 11%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 30.5%),硬资产占比 11%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.9%(经营现金流/市值 6.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.5%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 0.89 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 66.8 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -25%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -22% / -45%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "利亚德:PE 比行业中位高 5.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 20.0个百分点。"]}}