{"F": {"ts_code": "300283.SZ", "name": "温州宏丰", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "配电设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20120110", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.61, "pe_ttm": 51.6503, "pb": 5.2229, "dv_ttm": 0.119, "total_mv": 626689.5102, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [11.2, 10.6, 11.0, 8.0, 8.6, 11.7], "rev_series": [17.6, 23.5, 21.3, 29.0, 31.3, 36.6], "np_series": [0.3, 0.6, 0.3, 0.2, -0.7, 0.3], "roe_series": [5.1, 7.6, 3.4, 2.2, -8.1, 2.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 49.5, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_yield": -0.8, "ocf_yield": 0.6, "gm_median": 10.6, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -0.1, "npm_median": 0.4, "roe_median": 2.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 43.9, "fix_assets": 17.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.22, "capex_dep": 0.68, "interest_debt": 16.6, "debt_ebitda": 3.9, "debt_ratio": 69.5, "debt_mv": 26.5, "payout": 35.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 19.7, "np_cagr3": -6.0, "rev_yoy": 92.2, "np_yoy": 2521.9, "np_vol": 203.7, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 1.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["一体化电接触组件", 41.0], ["颗粒及纤维增强电接触功能复合材料及元件", 27.0], ["层状复合电接触功能复合材料及元件", 17.0], ["硬质合金", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 37.3, "ret_prev2_year": -13.4, "ret_ytd": 67.8, "ret_pivot": 176.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -19.3, "ret_60": -26.5, "ret_120": 51.7, "ret_250": 67.6, "mdd_250": -51.7, "vol_250": 71.9, "pos_52w": 49.4}, "S": {"duration": 73, "pricing": 43, "hard": 70, "bondness": 25}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 44%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 10.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 44%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 10.6%,稳定度 86%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.8%(经营现金流/市值 0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.6%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 0.68 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 51.7 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 68%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 72%,现价在 52 周高点的 49%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -19% / -26% / 52%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "温州宏丰:PE 比行业中位高 8.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 29.0个百分点。"]}}