{"F": {"ts_code": "300281.SZ", "name": "金明精机", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20111229", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.86, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.3136, "dv_ttm": 0.5831, "total_mv": 287381.5896, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.1, 17.2, 12.5, 16.4, 15.6, 15.9], "rev_series": [4.1, 5.2, 4.7, 4.5, 4.7, 4.4], "np_series": [0.4, 0.4, -0.0, 0.1, 0.1, -0.0], "roe_series": [3.0, 3.1, -0.1, 0.5, 0.6, -0.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.5, "np_ttm": -0.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 1.6, "ocf_yield": 1.8, "gm_median": 15.9, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -7.6, "npm_median": 1.5, "roe_median": 0.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.5, "fix_assets": 4.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.31, "capex_dep": 0.18, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 17.6, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 239.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -2.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 3.8, "np_yoy": 6.5, "np_vol": 241.9, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["薄膜吹塑机", 24.0], ["薄膜及袋制品", 19.0], ["其他设备", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 47.4, "ret_prev2_year": -5.8, "ret_ytd": -15.8, "ret_pivot": 59.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.4, "ret_60": -3.2, "ret_120": -6.7, "ret_250": -18.4, "mdd_250": -40.1, "vol_250": 37.1, "pos_52w": 78.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 43, "hard": 47, "bondness": 61}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 18%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 30%,毛利率近 5 年中位 15.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.6%(经营现金流/市值 1.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.9%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 0.18 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 37%,现价在 52 周高点的 79%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / -3% / -7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "金明精机:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.5个百分点。"]}}