{"F": {"ts_code": "300278.SZ", "name": "华昌达", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "工控设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20111216", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.59, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.1018, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 507585.2535, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.2, 9.7, 11.1, 11.5, 13.3, 11.0], "rev_series": [16.0, 21.5, 35.8, 28.6, 26.0, 28.9], "np_series": [-5.9, 0.3, 1.1, 0.8, 0.8, -0.6], "roe_series": [null, 5.3, 6.5, 4.6, 4.4, -3.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 31.4, "np_ttm": -0.8, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.1, "ocf_yield": 1.4, "gm_median": 11.1, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -2.1, "npm_median": 2.7, "roe_median": 4.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.9, "fix_assets": 3.6, "goodwill_ratio": 9.7, "pb_calc": 3.1, "capex_dep": 3.47, "interest_debt": 1.2, "debt_ebitda": 183.9, "debt_ratio": 49.9, "debt_mv": 2.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -6.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 25.0, "np_yoy": -827.1, "np_vol": 130.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["自动化输送智能装配生产线", 32.0], ["物流与仓储自动化设备系统", 14.0], ["工业机器人集成装备", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 4.3, "ret_prev2_year": 53.1, "ret_ytd": -41.1, "ret_pivot": 18.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.7, "ret_60": -15.7, "ret_120": -31.5, "ret_250": -43.1, "mdd_250": -50.4, "vol_250": 40.6, "pos_52w": 53.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 43, "hard": 17, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.8 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 50%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 11%,毛利率近 5 年中位 11.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.1%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 3.47 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -43%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -16% / -32%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "华昌达:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 22.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.9个百分点。"]}}