{"F": {"ts_code": "300275.SZ", "name": "梅安森", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "计算机设备", "sw3": "安防设备", "ind": "计算机设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20111102", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.09, "pe_ttm": 73.4488, "pb": 2.9171, "dv_ttm": 0.3817, "total_mv": 279976.6359, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.5, 40.7, 39.7, 41.7, 39.7, 40.5], "rev_series": [2.8, 3.1, 3.8, 4.3, 5.0, 4.4], "np_series": [0.3, 0.3, 0.4, 0.4, 0.6, 0.4], "roe_series": [5.2, 4.6, 5.0, 5.5, 6.4, 4.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.3, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 3.1, "ocf_yield": 3.5, "gm_median": 40.5, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -3.8, "npm_median": 9.8, "roe_median": 5.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.8, "fix_assets": 1.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.92, "capex_dep": 0.65, "interest_debt": 0.8, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 26.9, "debt_mv": 3.0, "payout": 16.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.0, "np_cagr3": 3.0, "rev_yoy": -4.3, "np_yoy": -9.2, "np_vol": 19.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["矿山", 39.0], ["煤矿产品", 39.0], ["非矿山产品", 8.0], ["非煤矿山产品", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": -9.3, "ret_prev2_year": 27.9, "ret_ytd": -31.5, "ret_pivot": -12.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.9, "ret_60": -0.1, "ret_120": -24.5, "ret_250": -41.5, "mdd_250": -50.8, "vol_250": 43.8, "pos_52w": 59.9}, "S": {"duration": 84, "pricing": 59, "hard": 20, "bondness": 27}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 73.4 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 13%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 40.5%),硬资产占比 13%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.1%(经营现金流/市值 3.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 40.5%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 0.65 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 73.4 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -42%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / -0% / -24%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「计算机设备」88 家中位:PE 51.7 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 35.8% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 49%。", "梅安森:PE 比行业中位高 21.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点。"]}}