{"F": {"ts_code": "300272.SZ", "name": "开能健康", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "家用电器", "sw2": "小家电", "sw3": "清洁小家电", "ind": "小家电", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20111102", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.81, "pe_ttm": 120.3927, "pb": 2.8048, "dv_ttm": 3.0981, "total_mv": 355263.7632, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.7, 33.4, 34.0, 37.5, 39.0, 39.0], "rev_series": [11.8, 15.1, 16.6, 16.7, 16.9, 18.4], "np_series": [0.3, 1.0, 0.9, 1.3, 0.8, 0.6], "roe_series": [2.2, 8.8, 8.1, 11.1, 6.6, 4.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.7, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 3.0, "fcf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_yield": 4.3, "ocf_yield": 8.6, "gm_median": 37.5, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -9.7, "npm_median": 6.7, "roe_median": 8.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.1, "fix_assets": 6.7, "goodwill_ratio": 4.3, "pb_calc": 2.8, "capex_dep": 2.28, "interest_debt": 14.5, "debt_ebitda": 4.6, "debt_ratio": 60.7, "debt_mv": 40.9, "payout": 108.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.5, "np_cagr3": -15.5, "rev_yoy": 1.5, "np_yoy": -39.6, "np_vol": 124.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 32.3, "fwd_pe2": 25.3, "fwd_g1": 273.0, "fwd_g2": 28.0, "peg": 1.15, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["终端业务及服务", 31.0], ["智能制造及核心部件", 18.0], ["实验动物服务、细胞制备及其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 25.3, "ret_prev2_year": 3.9, "ret_ytd": -21.8, "ret_pivot": 21.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.2, "ret_60": 3.8, "ret_120": -24.8, "ret_250": -11.8, "mdd_250": -41.0, "vol_250": 41.2, "pos_52w": 66.9}, "S": {"duration": 95, "pricing": 55, "hard": 31, "bondness": 84}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["现金流红利", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 120.4 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 19%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 32.3 倍,次年 25.3 倍,PEG 1.15。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 37.5%),硬资产占比 19%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.3%(经营现金流/市值 8.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.5%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 2.28 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 120.4 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 4% / -25%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「小家电」23 家中位:PE 50.5 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 50%。", "开能健康:PE 比行业中位高 69.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.6个百分点。"]}}