{"F": {"ts_code": "300267.SZ", "name": "尔康制药", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "化学制药", "sw3": "原料药", "ind": "化学制药", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110927", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.23, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.6563, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 666221.3827, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.8, 23.3, 22.2, 20.4, 27.5, 26.4], "rev_series": [23.8, 22.4, 18.7, 17.8, 11.4, 11.7], "np_series": [2.0, -7.9, 0.5, -2.0, -3.7, -3.8], "roe_series": [3.5, -14.9, 0.9, -4.0, -8.0, -9.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.5, "np_ttm": -3.7, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": -1.3, "fcf_yield": -2.0, "ocf_yield": 0.9, "gm_median": 23.3, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -0.6, "npm_median": -34.3, "roe_median": -8.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 42.9, "fix_assets": 21.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.66, "capex_dep": 1.34, "interest_debt": 7.2, "debt_ebitda": 4.9, "debt_ratio": 20.6, "debt_mv": 10.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -14.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -16.8, "np_yoy": 18.2, "np_vol": 263.5, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["辅料", 32.0], ["新能源材料", 8.0], ["原料药", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 22.7, "ret_prev2_year": -13.4, "ret_ytd": -5.3, "ret_pivot": 47.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.3, "ret_60": -5.0, "ret_120": -21.6, "ret_250": -20.8, "mdd_250": -40.5, "vol_250": 49.7, "pos_52w": 66.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 50, "hard": 69, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -3.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 21%,有息负债 7 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 43%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.3%,稳定度 89%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.0%(经营现金流/市值 0.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.3%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 43%,资本开支/折旧 1.34 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / -5% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制药」157 家中位:PE 37.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 52.5% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 38%。", "尔康制药:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 29.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.1个百分点。"]}}