{"F": {"ts_code": "300265.SZ", "name": "通光线缆", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "线缆部件及其他", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110916", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.5, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.7327, "dv_ttm": 0.1481, "total_mv": 631261.755, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.2, 16.7, 17.5, 17.8, 15.2, 15.1], "rev_series": [14.7, 19.2, 20.8, 23.5, 25.9, 25.4], "np_series": [0.6, 0.4, 0.8, 1.0, 0.5, 0.3], "roe_series": [5.0, 3.4, 6.0, 5.5, 2.1, 1.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 25.6, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.3, "ocf_yield": 1.6, "gm_median": 16.7, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -7.6, "npm_median": 2.8, "roe_median": 3.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.3, "fix_assets": 9.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 2.73, "capex_dep": 0.79, "interest_debt": 4.6, "debt_ebitda": 3.4, "debt_ratio": 33.8, "debt_mv": 7.3, "payout": 32.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.9, "np_cagr3": -26.7, "rev_yoy": 1.1, "np_yoy": -210.8, "np_vol": 48.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["输电线缆", 24.0], ["光纤光缆", 13.0], ["装备线缆", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 64.0, "ret_prev2_year": -10.5, "ret_ytd": 0.9, "ret_pivot": 111.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.7, "ret_60": -37.4, "ret_120": -26.9, "ret_250": 24.8, "mdd_250": -51.5, "vol_250": 81.5, "pos_52w": 52.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 45, "hard": 42, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 34%,有息负债 5 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 26%,毛利率近 5 年中位 16.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.7%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 0.79 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 25%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 82%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -37% / -27%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "通光线缆:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.4个百分点。"]}}