{"F": {"ts_code": "300263.SZ", "name": "隆华科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "其他通用设备", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110916", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.8, "pe_ttm": 50.7147, "pb": 2.4156, "dv_ttm": 0.6044, "total_mv": 1014306.174, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.9, 28.1, 24.0, 24.4, 23.0, 21.9], "rev_series": [18.2, 22.1, 23.0, 24.7, 27.1, 30.7], "np_series": [2.2, 2.9, 0.6, 1.3, 1.3, 1.9], "roe_series": [8.2, 10.0, 2.1, 4.1, 4.1, 5.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 33.9, "np_ttm": 2.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.1, "ocf_yield": 0.8, "gm_median": 24.0, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -5.9, "npm_median": 5.8, "roe_median": 4.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.3, "fix_assets": 11.4, "goodwill_ratio": 6.0, "pb_calc": 2.42, "capex_dep": 0.82, "interest_debt": 13.5, "debt_ebitda": 3.9, "debt_ratio": 42.9, "debt_mv": 13.3, "payout": 30.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 10.1, "np_cagr3": 43.5, "rev_yoy": 20.7, "np_yoy": 8.9, "np_vol": 57.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.0, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 35.0, "fwd_pe2": 27.2, "fwd_g1": 45.0, "fwd_g2": 29.0, "peg": 1.21, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["靶材及超高温特种材料", 13.0], ["电子新材料", 13.0], ["节能换热装备", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 22.1, "ret_prev2_year": 4.2, "ret_ytd": 11.6, "ret_pivot": 84.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.6, "ret_60": -30.9, "ret_120": -11.3, "ret_250": 12.3, "mdd_250": -50.5, "vol_250": 62.8, "pos_52w": 58.6}, "S": {"duration": 72, "pricing": 48, "hard": 24, "bondness": 36}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 50.7 倍、股息率 0.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 24.0%、固定资产占比 15%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 15%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.1%(经营现金流/市值 0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.0%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 0.82 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 50.7 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 12%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 63%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -31% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "隆华科技:PE 比行业中位高 0.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.5个百分点。"]}}