{"F": {"ts_code": "300259.SZ", "name": "新天科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "仪器仪表", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110831", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.35, "pe_ttm": 26.0419, "pb": 1.6717, "dv_ttm": 2.4884, "total_mv": 502470.6902, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [45.1, 45.6, 44.0, 44.6, 44.8, 43.6], "rev_series": [11.9, 11.9, 11.2, 10.9, 8.9, 10.7], "np_series": [3.8, 4.1, 2.5, 2.1, 1.9, 2.5], "roe_series": [16.1, 15.4, 8.6, 7.4, 6.6, 8.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.2, "np_ttm": 1.9, "ocf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 1.7, "ocf_yield": 3.1, "gm_median": 44.6, "gm_std": 0.7, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -1.1, "npm_median": 21.9, "roe_median": 8.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.7, "fix_assets": 7.1, "goodwill_ratio": 1.5, "pb_calc": 1.67, "capex_dep": 1.41, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 16.4, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 49.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.7, "np_cagr3": 0.7, "rev_yoy": -9.9, "np_yoy": -73.1, "np_vol": 23.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["智能水表及系统", 16.0], ["智能民用水表及系统", 16.0], ["智能工商业水表及流量计", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 29.6, "ret_prev2_year": -1.2, "ret_ytd": 0.5, "ret_pivot": 89.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.6, "ret_60": -18.1, "ret_120": -14.7, "ret_250": 11.8, "mdd_250": -48.7, "vol_250": 64.3, "pos_52w": 58.2}, "S": {"duration": 48, "pricing": 63, "hard": 32, "bondness": 52}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 26.0 倍、股息率 2.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 44.6%、固定资产占比 20%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 44.6%),硬资产占比 20%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.7%(经营现金流/市值 3.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 44.6%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 1.41 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 26.0 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 12%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -18% / -15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "新天科技:PE 比行业中位低 24.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 16.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.1个百分点。"]}}