{"F": {"ts_code": "300258.SZ", "name": "精锻科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110826", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.37, "pe_ttm": 135.4361, "pb": 1.1746, "dv_ttm": 0.8382, "total_mv": 548189.2264, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.5, 29.3, 28.4, 25.6, 24.4, 23.9], "rev_series": [12.0, 14.2, 18.1, 21.0, 20.3, 20.4], "np_series": [1.6, 1.7, 2.5, 2.4, 1.6, 1.3], "roe_series": [6.2, 5.6, 7.6, 6.7, 4.2, 3.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 19.4, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_ttm": -1.5, "fcf_yield": -2.8, "ocf_yield": 4.0, "gm_median": 25.6, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -3.1, "npm_median": 11.2, "roe_median": 5.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 50.7, "fix_assets": 38.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.17, "capex_dep": 1.03, "interest_debt": 23.4, "debt_ebitda": 4.7, "debt_ratio": 39.1, "debt_mv": 42.7, "payout": 30.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.1, "np_cagr3": -19.6, "rev_yoy": -10.4, "np_yoy": -145.3, "np_vol": 26.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 70.3, "fwd_pe2": 37.0, "fwd_g1": 93.0, "fwd_g2": 90.0, "peg": 0.78, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["齿轴类", 32.0], ["总成类", 11.0], ["差速器总成", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 62.4, "ret_prev2_year": -30.2, "ret_ytd": -34.4, "ret_pivot": 36.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.4, "ret_60": -18.9, "ret_120": -33.9, "ret_250": -36.7, "mdd_250": -47.3, "vol_250": 54.2, "pos_52w": 54.2}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 50, "hard": 81, "bondness": 46}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 135.4 倍、股息率 0.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 25.6%、固定资产占比 51%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 51%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 25.6%,稳定度 92%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.8%(经营现金流/市值 4.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.6%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 51%,资本开支/折旧 1.03 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 135.4 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -37%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -19% / -34%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "精锻科技:PE 比行业中位高 105.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 25.2个百分点。"]}}