{"F": {"ts_code": "300257.SZ", "name": "开山股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "其他通用设备", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110819", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.5, "pe_ttm": 47.6405, "pb": 2.6836, "dv_ttm": 0.5714, "total_mv": 1738861.25, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.0, 30.0, 32.2, 33.7, 33.6, 35.6], "rev_series": [30.2, 34.8, 37.5, 41.7, 42.3, 47.2], "np_series": [2.6, 3.0, 4.1, 4.3, 3.2, 3.6], "roe_series": [6.1, 6.3, 7.6, 7.2, 5.0, 5.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 49.6, "np_ttm": 3.6, "ocf_ttm": 9.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 0.2, "ocf_yield": 5.5, "gm_median": 33.6, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": 2.2, "npm_median": 8.9, "roe_median": 6.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 56.9, "fix_assets": 98.0, "goodwill_ratio": 1.0, "pb_calc": 2.68, "capex_dep": 2.05, "interest_debt": 82.1, "debt_ebitda": 6.3, "debt_ratio": 62.3, "debt_mv": 47.2, "payout": 27.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 8.0, "np_cagr3": -3.8, "rev_yoy": 10.6, "np_yoy": 0.4, "np_vol": 20.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["压缩机系列产品", 24.0], ["压缩机", 24.0], ["地热发电业务", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 56.4, "ret_prev2_year": -42.3, "ret_ytd": 25.4, "ret_pivot": 142.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.0, "ret_60": -33.1, "ret_120": -44.4, "ret_250": 22.5, "mdd_250": -55.7, "vol_250": 59.3, "pos_52w": 45.9}, "S": {"duration": 70, "pricing": 59, "hard": 91, "bondness": 40}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 98 亿,占总资产 57%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 33.6%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.2 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 0.2%,股息率 0.6%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 90%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 57%)和定价权(毛利率 33.6% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.2%(经营现金流/市值 5.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.6%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 57%,资本开支/折旧 2.05 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 47.6 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 22%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 59%,现价在 52 周高点的 46%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -33% / -44%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "开山股份:PE 比行业中位低 3.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 36.1个百分点。"]}}