{"F": {"ts_code": "300255.SZ", "name": "常山药业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "化学制药", "sw3": "化学制剂", "ind": "化学制药", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20110819", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.19, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 17.9464, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 2131302.2271, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [68.7, 58.2, 44.4, 22.5, 16.1, 15.1], "rev_series": [23.6, 29.7, 23.4, 14.1, 10.3, 8.8], "np_series": [2.5, 2.3, 0.2, -12.4, -2.5, -3.6], "roe_series": [9.1, 7.9, 0.6, -50.9, -14.8, -25.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.6, "np_ttm": -3.5, "ocf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_ttm": -2.4, "fcf_yield": -1.1, "ocf_yield": -0.5, "gm_median": 22.5, "gm_std": 17.1, "gm_stab": 0.24, "gm_chg_2022": -24.2, "npm_median": -25.6, "roe_median": -14.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 40.3, "fix_assets": 18.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 17.95, "capex_dep": 2.47, "interest_debt": 27.9, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 74.5, "debt_mv": 13.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -27.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -3.2, "np_yoy": 42.4, "np_vol": 2866.8, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 37.0], ["肝素水针制剂", 21.0], ["水针制剂", 21.0], ["肝素原料药", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 210.7, "ret_prev2_year": 53.7, "ret_ytd": -62.7, "ret_pivot": 132.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -17.5, "ret_60": -33.6, "ret_120": -44.5, "ret_250": -56.5, "mdd_250": -68.6, "vol_250": 69.1, "pos_52w": 33.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 23, "hard": 64, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -3.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 74%,有息负债 28 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 40%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 22.5%,稳定度 24%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.1%(经营现金流/市值 -0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.5%,稳定度 24%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -24.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 40%,资本开支/折旧 2.47 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -56%,最大回撤 -69%,年化波动 69%,现价在 52 周高点的 33%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -18% / -34% / -44%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制药」157 家中位:PE 37.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 52.5% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 38%。", "常山药业:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 30.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.5个百分点。"]}}